Maybe a case mortality rate of around 0.1–0.25%. That’s between 1x and 2.5x the case mortality rate of the flu in the US.
Specifically, in the worst case scenario, it could be a contributing cause for the deaths of up to 0.2% of the US population — 600,000 people. More likely, though, it will result in about half that number of deaths, depending on how they are counted.
How do we know this? We now have the benefit of data.
Looking at the hardest hit states — New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts — where the virus has pretty much run its course and the death rate has fallen to almost zero, the total attributed deaths were between 0.12 and 0.18% of the population.
This mortality rate would put these three states as the highest mortality countries, ahead of even San Merino.
These are likely over counted, though, because most deaths can only be partially attributed to coronavrius.
Other countries such as Sweden, Italy, and Belgium, where the virus has also run it course, have a population mortality rate of 0.05-0.09%, which is probably more realistic. The infection mortality rate (of all people exposed to the virus) is likely 2–3 times this, or 0.1-0.27%.
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