The world is constantly amazed that despite the popularity of vaccines and the inferred health benefits, right wing radicals continue to protest against vaccine mandates. Governments around the world have been ever so patient, using only non-lethal force. Even peace loving Victorian police were forced to fire non-lethal rounds in the backs of protesters as they charged an unarmed non-violent but curiously threatening crowd that was running away.
But it got real in Rotterdam, the Netherlands yesterday.
The crowds had become violent, mercilessly torching cars and murdering street signs. So, as a last resort, the Dutch police fired warning shots into the air. Four protesters were injured by the bullets and are in hospital. One wonders what would have happened if they had skipped the warning shots and just started shooting people.
It’s only a matter of time before real violence erupts. What is the end game for these politicians? We know they are doing what’s best for us peasants.
The Netherlands is going back into lockdown because of a spike in Covid cases. Scientifically, lockdown has been proven to be effective, as has wearing masks, social distancing, curfews, and vaccine passports. The problem, according to nearly every government, is that we aren’t doing enough of the above. And we need vaccines.
Unlike the past 70,000 years, herd immunity can only be achieved through vaccines.
It’s somehow appropriate that the Dutch institute Covid “green” passes and medical apartheid. The very word comes from Afrikaans, an African version of Dutch.
Politicians the world over are setting the scene for more divide and rule
Firing on protesters and creating medical apartheid is just the beginning of the good things politicians around the world are doing.
- Australia’s Northern Territory had a Covid case (one fully vaccinated individual) and subsequently closed the borders to all unvaccinated people. The Chief Minister was on TV stating that the vaccine is the only answer. Irony clearly doesn’t survive the heat up there.
- Gibraltar, the world’s most vaccinated place on earth with a curious 118% of residents vaccinated and booster shots being rolled out, just cancelled Christmas because of Covid. The link is to the New Zealand Herald published in another place where irony probably doesn’t work.
- Denmark, that bastion of democracy and socialism, passed legislation last year that allowed forced vaccination. For some reason, the population violently rose up against it and the government changed the law to only allow it to control every other aspect of peoples’ lives.
- Austria, the country that produced Hitler, became the first country to specifically lockdown the unvaccinated and plans to be the second country after Denmark to mandate vaccines. It’s not clear what the punishment for not getting vaccinated will be, but perhaps a combination of yellow stars and concentration camps. These worked in the past and were backed by science.
- Victoria, Australia, passed a pre-crime bill, which is a good complement to Australia’s updated ASIO Act.
All of these laws, powers and determinations serve to divide the population. Why?
One thing I saw in Australia was claims that they felt safe with the Australian Army because the Australian Army would never fire on Australians. I guess everyone feels this to some degree. Sorry to say, but the Army WILL fire on its own people, just as the Victoria Police fired on their own and the Dutch police did the same.
Sure, none of the soldiers I served with would willingly kill Australians and wouldn’t shoot live rounds into a crowd even if so ordered. Unless they were a danger to other Australians and killing them was the right thing to do.
We’ve already seen videos of Americans and Australians telling their unvaccinated compatriots, “I hope you die of Covid.”
The hate is building. Sure. But shooting fellow countrymen? Unimaginable.
Unless you are Korean, Chinese, German, Irish, American, Russian, Georgian, South African, New Zealander, Indonesian, Malaysian, Thai, Vietnamese, Lao, Cambodian, French, Spanish, English, Scottish, or from any other country that’s had a civil war.
While Dutch police shooting protesters isn’t going to make headline news in the US, it is indicative of what’s coming both in Europe and the rest of the world.
Australians are going to go along with it. Kiwis will do a haka, English will complain, Germans will speak sternly about following rules, Canadians will apologize while getting screwed over by their own government and Americans will buy guns.
Yes, predictable. Americans will always buy guns. But right now, they are buying a lot more.
Americans are buying guns in record numbers
It’s not just the government that Americans are concerned about. In some states, it’s the complete decriminalization of theft, defunded police, and rapidly rising crime.
Historically, Americans tend to buy guns when crime rises, or when the governments bring in absurdly authoritarian measures. These don’t usually happen at the same time. But they are today.
To top it off, Rittenhouse was acquitted of killing two and injuring one with his AR15 assault rifle.
It’s pretty clear that arming yourself and going to a protest is a really bad idea. On the basis of this, Americans will be arming themselves. Yes, a complete leap of logic. It’s how emotion works.
The best personal firearm is of course Smith and Wesson.
Double your money with calls on Smith and Wesson
S&W has been around for 169 years and is the maker of the classic .357 Magnum, .44 Magnum (Dirty Harry’s gun), and the AR15 assault rifle used by Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha.
Smith and Wesson (NASDAQ:SWBI) has enjoyed a bloody nice run up recently thanks to the pandemic-fueled buying spree. What amazes me most, though, is that when Americans buy guns, they buy a LOT of guns.
For most items, such as fridges, computers, cars, TVs etc, you’d expect to hit a saturation point. But it seems that when it comes to guns one is simply not enough. So this rise in gun ownership and gun purchases could in fact continue unabated for a decade. There’s a lot of growth potential as well — a whopping 70% of US adults don’t own guns. That’s the equivalent of 70% of Scottish people not drinking malt whiskey.
The run up in sales also goes right to the bottom line.
As overhead costs don’t grow with production, the healthy 56% rise in sales S&W enjoyed in the past year led to a whopping 541% rise in operating income. Yup, that’s a 5.4-fold rise in earnings.
The stock price doesn’t totally reflect this, however. Even after more than doubling in the past two years, the company is still trading at a trailing P/E of 4.6. No stocks stay below 10 in this market.
There could also be a short squeeze (good for us) on the stock as investors have shorted 5-days worth of trading volume (a lot less than this sparked a short squeeze in Tesla).
Clearly there’s expectation that sales will decline to “normal” levels. And they probably would, all things being equal. All things are not equal. For example, violent crime in the US is on the rise.
These are just statistics. The real question to ask is, “Do Americans feel fearful?”
Fortunately, the Cato Institute has the answer: the American Fear Index
Although the index stops at 2017, we can be pretty sure the trajectory would have been pretty steep over the past two years with the amount of fear the media is trying to inject into our world. These four words — fear, risk, danger, threat — are so common now that you probably didn’t blink at all four of them forced into the title.
There’s no question that fear is going up, murders are going up, and violent crime is going up. Arms purchases have already gone up.
But Smith and Wesson stock is trading as if gun purchases are headed back to 2007 levels. They aren’t.
The stock usually does a short run up into the new year as well, so we can do a low risk trade on it.
Right now you can buy the January 2022 25/30 vertical call spread for 1.05 ($105 per contract) or $2,100 for a 20-contract position. If the stock does have a run up between now and January, this will be worth up to 500 per contract.
However, this is a bit risky given the short time frame. I’d much rather buy the January 2023 25/30 vertical call spread for 1.30 (130 per contract) or $2,600 for a 20-contract position. This is an extra year of time value for 25c, which gives us a lot more time to make money. The specific options are the SWBI230120C00025000 and SWBI230120C00030000.
It also gives the market maker time to come to the party, so just place your order and make it good for the week.
BUY to open 20 25/30 SWBI vertical call spread contracts expiring on January 20, 2023, consisting of the SWBI230120C00025000 and SWBI230120C00030000 calls. Use a limit order and make it good for the week.
If I’m right and a) Americans keep liking guns; b) the media continues its relentless scare tactics, and c) this propels Smith and Wesson back to $30 a share, you should at least double your money, or make up to 285% profit if you hold to maturity.
P.
