I was reminded about this when reading about infant deaths in Victoria, Australia, where the official made it clear that the deaths he was talking about where kids who died with Covid, not from Covid.
I was shocked. Not because it’s such a blatant misrepresentation, but because it’s the first time in ages I’ve seen a health official be honest and not deliberately misleading the public as seems to have become the official modus operandi.
It also triggered a thought. At what point can this pandemic ever end?
Let’s look at the United Kingdom.
Over the the UK, there’s a been a huge increase in Covid cases. This is inexplicable in this highly vaccinated population unless, just maybe, the vaccines don’t stop transmission.
That could mean a lot of “died with Covid” death certificates.
With a population of 67 million, there are around 670,000 deaths each year and will be for well into the future. How many of these have Covid? Statistically, it should be around 2% because there are 1.5 million active cases in the UK. This is steady as there are around 35k new cases identified each day.
Interestingly, the new case load dwarfs that of the previous waves.
At this rate, it would take 2000 days — 6 years — for Covid to infect everyone and achieve herd immunity. But we won’t really have herd immunity will we?
When did you last get the flu or a cold? As with other coronaviruses (which cause about half of your colds), you can get reinfected with Covid. So even after six years and six booster shots, people are STILL going to get mild cases of Covid, just like we all still get the flu, colds, and various stomach upsets.
Let’s say that around 20% of the population get Covid each year — similar to the flu or a cold. That would mean around 10% of deaths coming within six months of a positive Covid test — “Dying with Covid.” That’s 67k a year, or 183 per day.
Strangely, that’s similar to where we are now.
The same applies to every population where the same standards apply: Dying after a Covid test or with suspected Covid is a Covid death.
So those who thought we’d be through this pandemic by next February are doomed to be disappointed. Similarly, politicians who were concerned that they would lose their pandemic powers will be delighted.
Based on just the currently low rate of infection at the moment, the pandemic has another eight years to run. Even if it accelerates at 4x the current pace, a combination of reinfections, false positive PCR tests, and suspected Covid infections will continue forever.
Statistically, this is the forever pandemic that will likely spawn more variants than the Greek alphabet can handle.
No need to wait for the new normal. This is it.
It’s also great for Pfizer. Your June 2022 65.00 calls are up 75% in two weeks. I recommend holding out for at least a two bagger.
Peter.
