Updated CDC analysis shows COVID-19 is less dangerous… than living

Updated COVID-19 infection fatality estimates at the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) show that the chances of dying from the virus are almost zero, according to the current best estimate:

0-19 years: 0.003%
20-49 years: 0.02%
50-69 years: 0.5%
70-80 years: 5.4%

To put this into perspective, The Ostrich Head compared these to the US actuarial tables for mortality rates of the same age groups:

0-19 years: 0.05%
20-49 years: 0.18%
50-69 years: 0.95%
70-80 years: 3.21%

Incredibly (or not), people aged under 50 are ten times more likely to die in the next 12 months, on average, than from dying if they get COVID-19.

To put it another way, if EVERYONE in this age group got COVID-19, it would reduce their average life expectancy by 41 days.

Some people can’t live with that. But according to CDC estimates, they have about a 99.98% chance.

Even those in the 50-69 age range are just as likely to die in the next seven months on average as they are if they get COVID-19.

It’s only once you get into the 70-80 age range where COVID starts to make a slight difference. Bear in mind, though, that the life expectancy at birth in the US in 1940 was 62, so anyone over 80 well and truly beating the odds.

This does beg the question, though, “What about the flu?”

Coincidentally (or not), the mortality rates for the flu, according to CDC data, are similar to COVID-19:

0-17 years: 0.004%
18-49 years: 0.017%
50-64 years: 0.061%
65+ years: 0.703%

So, based on CDC best estimates, if you are under 50, COVID-19 is about as serious as the flu.

Furthermore, if we take a simple average of each of these death rates, we get

So, on average

If you are under 69, you are twice as likely to die this year from other causes than from COVID-19 — even with a 100% infection rate!

And for the average person…

Anyone under 49 is more likely to die in the next 36 days from other causes than dying from COVID-19 — assuming they even get infected.