Here’s why Australia will mandate vaccine boosters for the rest of your life

Moderna has agreed to build a factory and produce Covid vaccines in Melbourne beginning mid-2024.

Under an agreement with the Australian and Victorian governments, Moderna will build a $2 billion facility in Melbourne, creating 500 jobs and employing 500 construction workers in the process.

The layers of insanity and corruption here are mind blowing. Just a few questions come to mind:

a) How do our politicians know that this pandemic will still be here in three years? No respiratory pandemic in history has lasted that long. Were the conspiracy theorists who called this a “plandemic” correct all along?

b) Only one booster shot has been approved for the Moderna vaccine. How is it that both the state and federal governments and Moderna are so confident that the independent regulatory bodies in the US and Australia will continue to to issue new approvals ad nauseum? Should we just replace the TGA with a part time temp with a rubber stamp?

c) Why is this a $2 billion deal? Back in April university scientists estimated it would cost around $50 million to set up a facility to manufacture these mRNA vaccines under license. Sure, scientists don’t understand real world costs perfectly, but a factor of 40? Really? Furthermore, Moderna’s total assets were only US$7.3 billion at the end of 2020. What will it do with a $2 billion facility?

d) Why is the Victorian government even involved in this deal? The Victorian government doesn’t even purchase vaccines. These are 100% supplied by the federal government.

e) Why is any government financing a factory for a private company?

f) If Australia needs its own mRNA vaccines, why not build a facility to commercialize the mRNA vaccine developed at Victoria’s own Monash University?

g) How much of this money will be kicked back into the Victorian Labor Party to fund next year’s election campaign?

Naturally, we’ll never get answers to these questions. The Victorian government is not audited effectively and there’s zero transparency. The entire public audit report has just a two-line profit and loss statement and a two-line balance sheet for each material entity (e.g. department) of the Victorian government. All it shows is that costs for the tunnel project have blown out by $2.57 billion, general government costs have blown out by $13 billion, and the state’s borrowings have surged by $30 billion.

An extra $2 billion wasted on needless vaccines is nothing for this government

The Andrews government has tripled state debt in five years and plans to add an extra $20 billion a year for the next five. As with other governments around the world, this one has discovered that there are zero consequences for borrowing and spending the state into oblivion. Two billion on a new factory is nothing.

The Andrews government more than tripled Victoria’s debt in four years

The terms of the deal are “commercial in confidence” which means they would be damaging to the government if they were made public. If it were me, I would refuse to commit to a deal without a clause requiring the government to purchase a certain number of shots each year and make them mandatory for the entire population.

That’s just me though. Maybe the market demand will pick up and the 280 million on order simply won’t be enough. And maybe the government will get tired of controlling the population with QR codes and mandatory tracking. Pigs may fly.

Meanwhile, the financial trajectory is pretty clear.

It’s also good news for both Pfizer and Moderna

Pfizer calls closed with 229% profits

Last week I recommended placing a sell order for half of your Pfizer calls. They closed well about the sell limit of 2.07 yesterday, so you would have been hit. If you didn’t have the sell order in the market, then I recommend you to pop over to these guys and take profits on half today. You should be able to sell them for 4.00, which is over 500% profit.

Take another 500% profits on Pfizer today

I recommend selling another 40% of your position (20% of the original one) for 4.00. This is a 545% profit and will bring in $4000 for 10 contracts, which is more than the original cost of the position of $3,100.

Take 88% profits on Excelon

When I recommended Excelon back in October, I was aiming for 100% profits in about six months. However we’re up 85% in two months, so I recommend taking profits. Place an order to sell the January 2023 60.00 calls for 3.2 and make it good for the week. If you get hit, then you’ll bring in $9,600 for the recommended 30-contract position, of which $4,300 will be profits.

Then, place a buy order for a Moderna options strategy

Moderna (MRNA) is a pure play on these vaccines. It is currently making $3.3 billion profit a quarter and has a market cap of $114 billion. That gives it a PE of just 10x, which means it’s trading as if future revenue will go down.

But will it?

Governments, the WHO, Google, FarceBook, Twitter, the vaccine companies, and anyone else in their thrall is dead set on making vaccines go forever. Heck, Webster just changed the definition of antivaxer to include anyone who opposes vaccine mandates. No politician wants that label.

Here’s a quick calculation:

About 1.29 billion people live in OECD countries, of which around 900 million people live in wealthy countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. That’s Moderna’s primary market. Assuming only half of these people get booster shots every six months and booster shots drop in price from $30 to $20. That’s $180 billion a year. Moderna only needs to capture 10% of that to maintain sales. That excludes rapid growth in new markets such as Australia, Thailand (Moderna is in such demand that people PAY for it here), the Mideast, Africa, and South America.

I’m bullish on the market figuring this out and realizing that with a gross profit margin of 85%, Moderna is going to rake in much larger profits in the first half of next year.

For this reason, I expect it will recover to near it’s previous highs of $449 it hit in June. That’s a 59% hike to the upside from here.

It’s a slightly risky bet because Moderna appears to have the highest rate of severe adverse events, but it looks like nobody will be allowed to connect those dots in mainstream media nor most social media, so it will remain an “antivaxer conspiracy.” I’m good with that. I wouldn’t want to bet on governments and social media (visit tokrush.com to improve your profile’s visibility) suddenly promoting the truth.

Given that volatility is through the roof right now, I recommend buying a vertical call spread. I recommend the June 2022 350/300 vertical call spread. You should be able to open this for 15.10 ($1,510 per contract) or $4,530 for a 3-contract position. If I’m right and Moderna does return to or near its mid year highs before June 17, this position will be worth a juicy $15,000 at expiry.

Cheers,

Peter.

18 December 2021

Update: Pfizer 65.00 calls opened at 3.90, so you should have been able to sell your ten PFE 65.00 June 2022 calls for $3,900, which is slightly over 500% profit. Well done.

On the other hand, Moderna gapped up, so our call spread didn’t trade. No problem, just leave it in the market until it gets picked up.

23 December 2021

Update: Moderna shares fall and you would have been able to open the 3-contract position on the Moderna June 2022 300/350 vertical call spread for 15.10 or $4,530 for the 3-contract position.